Is a 'Friendly' Iranian General About to Seize Power?
As the battle with Iran continues, both Israel and the U.S. reportedly want a bold leader inside the country to force real change. With Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly out of commission and most of Iran's old guard gone, the big question is: who's actually running the show and trying to end the conflict?
President Trump's statement that he's in talks with a top Iranian official set off rumors that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the hardline speaker of Iran's parliament, might be the one negotiating. Trump has now confirmed it, but Ghalibaf says he's not talking to the United States.
Military analyst Doran Kempel thinks both the U.S. and Israel hope that Iran's next leader will come straight from the IRGC.
"We need to make sure that we demolish all the military infrastructure along the way. We're preparing a friendly general, a friendly general who's probably already in a relationship with the Mossad or the CIA, and when we feel that the IRGC has been weakened sufficiently, this general basically steps up and leads an uprising," Kempel explained. "I don't have inside information. I don't know where we stand relative to that step, but it's probably a matter of a few weeks."
Kempel used to serve as deputy commander of Sayeret Matkal, Israel's top special forces unit. The remaining question is, what's the backup plan if no revolution transpires and there's no friendly general?
"The next option that can be done with our massive airpower is to just break Iran into small parts. They're never going to be any economy. They can develop any power not in the next 30 to 50 years. That is very painful for the Iranian people," Kempel said.
The worst thing for Iran's people would be attacks on the oil supply or power grid. That would hit everyone hard.
President Trump has given Iran ten more days to fully open up the Strait of Hormuz. If they don't work out a deal, he says air strikes on Iran's power plants will be ordered.
"Certainly the regime is radical in its entirety, but I believe there remain a few individuals who can be described as pragmatic and reasonable to at least here or offer their own terms with the US and Israel," said Middle East analyst and Young Voices Senior contributor Abdullah Hayek.
Hayek said President Trump believes Iran wants to make a deal on nuclear weapons. However, when it comes to Iran's support for groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, Hayek believes that's probably not up for discussion.
"The proxies are also equally important for Iran because they're a first line of defense. They can deter and impose pressure on Israel and the regional allies of the US," Hayek explained. "So, the Iranians will just, in no way, shape, or form, surrender that. So I don't think that the deals are beneficial to the U.S. or the region in any way. Personally, I don't believe there's anyone in the regime in Iran right now that can be trusted."
President Trump said he wants to strike a deal by Easter to open the Straits and end the fighting. But he's not taking any chances.
More U.S. troops are on the way, just in case an Iranian general decides to jump ship and turns to the American military for help in taking control of what's left of the collapsing regime.
About The Author
Mr. Lane served as International News Director and Senior International Correspondent for CBN News. He traveled to more than 120 countries—many of them restricted nations or areas hostile to Christianity and other minority faiths where he has interviewed persecution victims and provided video reports and analysis for CBN News. Also, he provided written stories and served as a consultant for the Voice of the Martyrs.
Gary joined The Christian Broadcasting Network in 1984 as the first full-time Middle East Correspondent for CBN News. Based in Jerusalem, Gary produced reports from Beirut on the Lebanese civil war. He was reassigned to Washington, D.C., at the start of President Reagan’s second term and served as National Security Correspondent from the U.S. State Department, Pentagon, Capitol Hill, and the White House.
Gary left CBN briefly in 1988 to work as Senior Press Secretary for Pat Robertson’s presidential campaign. Afterward, he returned to Washington and served as Washington Bureau Chief for CBN News from 1989-1992.
Gary transferred to CBN headquarters in Virginia Beach in 1996, where he began more extensive international traveling and reporting as a Senior Correspondent.
In addition to his extensive reporting on Christian persecution, Gary is also known for his reporting on the civil war in Sudan. He made 20 trips to the country since 1993 and also testified before Congress about the plight of Burmese refugees.
Gary produced numerous documentaries, including Americans Abandoned for the American Defense Institute, which afforded him the opportunity to become the first American journalist granted access to the Vietnamese Defense and Cultural Film archives. The investigative film about American POWs featured Vietnam War footage never seen before by Americans.
Gary also produced several persecution documentaries, including one about Christians in Egypt for Freedom House—Their Blood Cries Out—and another about attacks in Indonesia for The Voice of the Martyrs—Island Jihad. He also worked as a production consultant and videographer for the VOM video specials Underground Reality Vietnam and Underground Reality Colombia.
Over the years, Gary covered wars in Lebanon, Israel, Nicaragua, Angola, Burma, Sudan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, Colombia, Libya, and Syria. He won several awards, including one from the National Gulf War Resource Center for his groundbreaking investigative reporting of Gulf War Illness, an affliction affecting veterans of Operation Desert Storm. The Australian Evangelical Press Association gave him an award for his reporting of a church massacre that occurred in Bahawalpur, Pakistan, shortly after 9-11.
Gary left CBN in 2000 to join the Voice of The Martyrs as their News Director, where he directed the mission’s multimedia efforts. Those included the website, monthly newsletter, video productions, publications, press releases, and media interviews.
Gary rejoined CBN in late 2003 as International News Director/Senior Correspondent. He served as executive producer of three weekly international news programs: Christian World News (CWN); Mundo Cristiano, a Spanish version of CWN produced in Costa Rica; and an Arabic language version of CWN, CWN Arabic, which was broadcast throughout North Africa and the Middle East. He also hosted and produced the weekly CBN News Channel program, The Global Lane.
Prior to CBN, Gary worked for various local television stations in Michigan, including one owned by Time Inc. and another by Knight-Ridder. Before that, he worked at local radio stations in Flint and Detroit.
Gary is a 1979 honors graduate of The University of Michigan, Flint, where he served as political editor of The University News, studied pre-law, and received an A.B. in political science and history.
