Some observations on the Najibullah Zazi case
My colleague John Jessup has all the latest details
Attorney General Eric Holder has called this the most serious plot against the US homeland since 9/11. The fact that it was directly orchestrated by Al Qaeda, acting through Zazi, is the key point there. It would have involved multiple suicide bombers and had an effect on NYC's transit system similar to that of the Madrid and London bombings. Horrible, to be sure, and extrememly damaging on many levels, but nowhere near 9/11 in terms of casualties and economic and psychological damage.
Al Qaeda seems to have realized that with U.S. intel and anti-terror measures greatly improved, they may not be able to pull off another 9/11 in the short term (unless, of course, they acquire WMDs). For now, the group may be readjusting its plan for the U.S., lowering the bar a bit so to speak, to a more "chip away" strategy. An underwear bomber blows up a plane; a Zazi type blows up a train; a Mumbai-style siege attack occurs in a mid-sized American city; a jiahdist plant shoots up an Army base.
While likely lacking the symbolism and history-altering qualities of 9/11, these smaller attacks can all add up to gradually erode a society's confidence and security over time. It may not always be as huge and splashy (two qualities AQ traditionally loves) as 9/11, but if carried out over a long period, this strategy could be a successful one for al-Qaeda.
And they have shown time and again over the past two decades that they are very patient.
