Islamists vs. The Egyptian Army

CAIRO, Egypt -- Gone from Tahrir Square are the young advocates of democracy, the peeps and Facebook friends who launched a revolution earlier this year.

Enter the Islamists, emboldened by their landslide victories in the first two rounds of parliamentary elections, challenging the authority of the Egyptian Army and members of the Supreme Council.

The Islamists want to rule Egypt now rather than wait for a promised presidential election and civilian government control scheduled for next June.

Egyptians I have talked to here tell me little has changed in Egypt during the past 60 years--once again the Army is squaring off with Islamist for control of the country.

It happened during the time of Gamal Abdel Nasser during the 1950s and 1960s, during the time of President Anwar Sadat and again during the reign of recently deposed President Hosni Mubarak.

The Islamists don’t have the guns or tanks needed to force a take over, but they’re hoping video and Internet images of army brutality witnessed by the world this week will cause the international community to pressure the Egyptian Army to relinquish government control.

But the Islamists' tactics may backfire. Many Egyptians are growing tired of the demonstrations and ongoing battles with the army. Though a plurality have voted for the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party and the Salafist al Nour Party, many want to see an orderly transition to the future.

What’s next? A battle over the new constitution. The army wants to include all members of society by seating Christians, secularists, women, and others on the constitutional drafting commission. This may ensure a more secular and democratic future (and army privileges and influence).

The Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamists want constitutional commission members to be chosen by the new parliament (which they will dominate). That would ensure that some aspects of shariah law will be written into the constitution.

Some Egyptians tell me they expect a third phase to their revolution--perhaps beginning on the first anniversary of the start of their uprising, Jan. 25, 2011. This time, it may be much more violent and bloody.

Egypt is the key to the future of the Middle East. Which way will it turn in the coming year? Stay tuned.