Arizona Ballot Measure Could Impact 2024 Presidential Race: '$100 Million to Promote Abortion'

Arizona voters are set to face a historic decision this November that could significantly influence the 2024 presidential election. 

Amid Arizona's stunning desert landscapes and serene red rock vistas, a major political battle is unfolding. Proposition 139, backed by Democrats, seeks to allow abortions up to approximately 24 weeks, challenging the state Supreme Court's recent decision to reinstate a 15-week limit.

State GOP Chair Gina Swoboda argues that the timing of the measure is strategic. "They put it on the ballot to drive voter turnout. Outside groups are going to spend $100 million to promote the abortion issue in one state just on the abortion measure," Swoboda said.

The legal landscape in Arizona has become increasingly contentious since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, removing the federal guarantee of abortion rights. The state reverted to a stringent 1864 law that bans abortions except to save the life of the mother. 

Paul Bentz of Highground Inc. explained, "Arizona went back to the 1864 law which banned abortion in all situations except for the life of the mother and in fact, criminalized the performance of abortions. Republicans in swing areas saw that was likely an untenable position to be competitive in their overall races."

A recent CBS poll indicates that 65% of Arizonans support making abortion a constitutional right. Dr. Len Munsil, President of Arizona Christian University, is concerned. "Roe v. Wade was an abomination. But we lost the culture war in the meantime. People didn't understand why every life has value. Now, we have to reeducate and fight to protect every life," Munsil said.

National pro-abortion groups are using momentum from Proposition 139 to target two state Supreme Court justices who upheld the state's abortion ban, aiming to remove them from the bench. Thom Reilly of Arizona State University said, "We've never failed to retain a Supreme Court justice before. But this issue elevates down-ballot races in ways we've never seen."

The measure's implications extend beyond Arizona, potentially affecting the broader presidential race. Vice President Kamala Harris, a proponent of the White House's pro-choice agenda, and former President Donald Trump, who appointed three justices pivotal in overturning Roe v. Wade, stand on opposing sides of this contentious issue. This dynamic in Arizona makes it a critical battleground in the national abortion rights debate.

Pundits suggest that a victory for abortion rights in Arizona could influence public opinion across the country. "Those of us who live outside of those states, it doesn't mean we're exempt from what's going on there. We still have a stake in that battle," said Dr. George Barna who is the Director of Research and cofounder of the Cultural Research Center at Arizona Christian University.

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However, while the debate is energizing Democrats, pro-life advocates are worried about voter turnout. Swoboda emphasized the need for greater engagement from the faithful. "We need to talk to the faith-based community. I saw a statistic that 60 to 80% of regular churchgoers don't vote. If this issue matters to you, it's crucial to vote, register, and make your voice heard," Swoboda said.

A new poll from Arizona Christian University reveals that a third of evangelicals nationwide do not participate in elections, potentially costing Republicans millions of votes. "If we're going to see America turn back to God, we've got to look at states like Arizona because this is where the front lines of the political, social, and spiritual battle are drawn," said Barna.

With the election just around the corner, Arizona's decision on Proposition 139 could have significant and lasting consequences, both for the state and the nation.