These Key Senate Races Could Determine the Balance of Power in November

WASHINGTON – While the tight 2024 presidential race gets most of the headlines, the battle over Capitol Hill control certainly deserves attention. In the Senate, several critical races are just as competitive and could help determine how Washington works or doesn't over the next two years. 

With a total of 34 Senate seats up for election, there's a lot at stake. The majority party will have power over the next president's cabinet appointments and judicial nominations as well as influencing their legislative agenda. 

As Democrats cling to a slim, 51-seat majority in the Senate, 10 competitive races in some red-leaning states threaten to shift the balance of power.  

"Democrats have to defend every single incumbent. They cannot lose a single race and they also need Harris to win the presidency so that Tim Walz would be the tiebreaker," said Jessica Taylor of Cook Political Report.

Given that situation, we asked Taylor which states to watch closely. She sees the most critical being Republican-leaning Montana, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester stands to lose his seat.

"His toughest challenger and most well-financed, best, well-financed challenger in Tim Sheehy," said Taylor. "There he is, a former Navy SEAL, served in Afghanistan, Purple Heart recipient. He owns an aerial firefighting company there. We have seen in polling that he has been polling ahead of Tester."

Sheehy's possible defeat of Tester is widely seen as one of the GOP's best chances to reclaim the Senate.

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Another key red state to watch is West Virginia where long-time Democrat incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring. 

"I think Democrats would have had a tough time even defending that seat. Republicans have ceded that. We rate that race as actually safe Republican," said Taylor.

If this happens, Senate Republicans would only need one more victory to reclaim control, if they're able to avoid upsets elsewhere.  

In the battleground of Michigan, voting has already started, and a tight contest is underway for the state's first open Senate seat in a decade. A critical test for Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin, as she faces off against her Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.

"He was chair of the House Intelligence Committee during the Bush years, and he retired from Congress in 2014. He's a former FBI agent. He struggled to raise money. Slotkin has outspent him. But Michigan is just going to be very close."

In neighboring Ohio, the Senate race is now considered a toss-up. Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown is running for reelection. Taylor sees Brown as vulnerable against Republican candidate and Trump ally Bernie Moreno.  

"We're seeing polling out now. It's within the margin of error.  Republican polls this week had it tied. It's still going to be close, and it might just be that that's too much for Sherrod Brown to overcome too," said Taylor.

Brown currently holds a four-point lead and 10% of Trump voters, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll in September. However, Trump is expected to carry Ohio in the presidential race.  

Looking ahead at high-profile battleground Pennsylvania, many election watchers are talking about an ad from Democrat incumbent Sen. Bob Casey that said in part: "Casey bucked Biden to protect fracking and he sided with Trump to end NAFTA and put tariffs on China to stop them from cheating."

Analysts say that while this shows Casey's ability to be bipartisan, they also believe it's a result of Vice President Harris losing ground in the state, which could affect other races. Republican challenger Dave McCormick is moving up against Casey, and the Cook Report just shifted the race from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up". 

There's little room for error in Pennsylvania, as well as other states, like Wisconsin and Arizona, where results at those polls could play a decisive role on who controls the Hill come November. 

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