- Supply chain.

It's a term many of us

never thought of before March of 2020.

We did, however, enjoygetting what we wanted

when we wanted it.

The pandemic changed all that.

- There's no automakerthat has not been hindered

in some way, shape or formwhen it comes to sales

because they simply have no inventory.

- Whatever becomes thehot toy of the season

in the next month or two

may not be there in huge quantities.

- [Caitlin] Some of the worst backups

happening in what's called durable goods,

appliances, laptops, furniture.

That's because the pandemicchanged spending habits.

- People said, "Well, ifI can't go on vacation,

"I'll get a bicycle orI'll repaint the house,

"put in new curtains,"

and then they foundpaint was on back order,

curtains were on back order

because so many people were trying to buy

these durable goods thateverybody else wanted.

- [Caitlin] Many businessesalso cut back at the outset,

expecting a major slowdown in sales.

- And then come summer of last year,

consumer spending was there

and all these businesses triedto turn around real fast,

but it's hard to turn around real fast.

- [Caitlin] And then,

according to economicconsultant Bill Conerly,

came the perform storm.

- [Bill] The Suez Canal got clogged.

A couple of the seaports in China

were closed because of COVID,

the hurricane took downnatural gas production

which is a feedstockfor a lot of chemicals.

- [Caitlin] Still, Conerly says

the biggest overall interruptioncame in the workforce.

- [Bill] The shortage of workers

is common all around thecountry and as a result,

businesses that wannaincrease their production,

want to serve their customers better,

wanna stock up on inventory,they cannot find the workers.

- [Caitlin] This affects each level

of the domestic supply chain,

from factories to the trucking industry

to distribution centers.

And international goods can't get here

because of a major backup at our ports,

shipping containers waitingto unload for up to eight days

due in part to labor shortages at docks.

- [Chris] There are more than 100 ships

anchored off the coast asfar as the eye can could.

- [Caitlin] Experts and businesses alike

don't see this ending until 2022.

For some industries,that's meant shutdowns.

GM, Toyota, and Nissanhave all paused production

because of a shortage ofcomputer semiconductor chips

used in a large number of car parts.

- This start-stop situation

where it's like the lines come back on,

they get shuttered back again.

Some automakers, they'rereworking their vehicles

to have fewer chips,

certain options aren't even being offered,

but it's not been enough

to actually completelycurb all of the issues.

- [Caitlin] Otherindustries are forced to pay

up to three times more forsupplies than in the past

and still barely get enoughto keep the doors open.

Oakley Monument Company hasseen a major surge in business

due to COVID-related deaths,

but grieving customers arewaiting months for memorials.

- We're lucky if we're able to get

1/4 of what we need forour orders once a month.

Stuff that used to costus $9,000 to get shipped

is up anywheres in the 20s,

20,000s just to get it shipped here,

and then they also tackon a tariff as well.

- [Caitlin] Alignable, asmall business network,

is helping companies pivot.

A major step forward

has been simply connecting business owners

to others in their industry.

- We actually have created groups

so an industry can cometogether and share ideas.

So we'll have an industrygroup just for florists,

and they can actuallyshare ideas with each other

about where are theylooking to get supplies,

how are they filling part-timeroles at their companies

and things like that.

- [Caitlin] That way ofthinking allowed Mark Patterson,

co-founder of Civilized Coffee,

to get around some ofhis supply chain issues.

- What we've been doingis buying larger lots,

full containers of coffee,

bringing them back to our warehouse

and then we've justsaid, "Reach out to us,"

and we have a lot of relationships

where we can sell off smaller lots

to these smaller roastersaround the country.

- [Caitlin] Meanwhile,consumers are feeling

the result of all this in their wallets.

- The classic definition of inflation

is too many dollars chasing too few goods.

We've got a lot of dollars thatpeople are trying to spend,

we have not increasedour production capacity.

- [Caitlin] Conerlypredicts this could lead

to a boom-bust economy similarto the late '60s and 1970s.

Simply put, that would mean high inflation

followed by a tighteningof monetary policy

by the Federal Reserve,resulting in a recession,

then they would hit the gas again,

causing more inflation.

Conerly's advice to businesses

comes straight from the Old Testament.

- There's this old dreamthat the Pharaoh had

and Joseph said, "Youneed to use the good years

"to prepare for the bad years,"

and that applies to business today.

They need to take advantage

of the good years while they're here,

but they need to beready for the bad years

because we're going to have acouple of recessions, I think,

in the next five, 10 years.

- With the holiday season upon us,

experts say retailers are doing their best

to prepare for the rush,

but there's only so muchthey'll be able to do

to keep their shelves stocked.

So whether you typicallyare an early shopper

or you prefer to do it last minute,

now is the time to startmarking items off your list.

Caitlin Burke, CBN News.