- The Iowa Caucuses areless than a month away,

which means the 2020 presidentialcontest is about to begin.

But how important is Iowa this year?

A piece in "Politico" this week suggests

that it matters less,citing fewer candidate days

on the ground this year.

We're joined now by someone on the ground.

Shane Vander Hart is the Editor-in-Chief

of Caffeinated Thoughts, aconservative Christian news

and culture website based in Iowa.

Shane, thank you so much for joining us.

- Hey, thanks for having me, Heather.

- I wanna ask you aboutthat "Politico" piece,

but first off we have seenIran dominate the headlines

this week, is that something that Iowans

are following closely andsomething that you think

the candidates are talkingabout on the ground

or will be talking aboutin the coming weeks?

- Oh certainly, especiallywhen we're anticipating

what's gonna happen movingforward after the initial

back and forth between theUnited States targeting

General Soleimani andthen the missile attack

that Iran launched, so we'vebeen talking about this.

I don't think it's gonna makethat much of a difference

when it comes to the IowaCaucus because I think

the Democratic candidates are saying much

of the same thing,attacking President Trump

on launching this attackwithout notifying Congress.

Republicans are prettysupportive of President Trump

here in Iowa, I believe.

I think while they were supportive

of this particular targetingof General Soleimani,

we don't necessarily wanna seean all out ground war either.

What'll happen goingforward will determine

how much of an issue it'sgonna be among Iowans

as we approach not just the Iowa Caucus

but the general election in November.

- Right, I think we're allbreathing a sigh of relief

right now but still cautious.

I wanted to ask you aboutthat "Politico" piece

and just the importance of Iowa

in this year's presidential race.

Of course, you're biased, you're an Iowan,

you're on the ground there.

But from your vantagepoint, what are you seeing?

Are the Democratic presidentialcandidates spending

less time in Iowa than in previous years?

- I think that's accurate.

I mean, you can't reallydeny they're counting up

actual events and how manytimes they're coming out.

It doesn't seem like thatbecause they are just so many

Democratic candidates, so it seems like

we always have somebody here in the state,

but the caucus is a little bit later

than it's been in the past,

and I think that's making a difference.

You got Super Tuesdaylooming a month out from,

I believe a month out,from the Iowa Caucus,

and that's gonna make upabout 60% of the delegates.

You've had some complaints,Julian Castro, he's the one

that first lodged the complaintabout Iowa being too white

and not diverse enough, so youprobably have that at play.

But what your viewers needto understand is that Iowa

may not necessarilypick the party nominee,

even though we have in certain years.

What Iowa's useful for iswinnowing down the field.

We started this particularprocess cycle with over,

I believe over 20 candidates.

It hasn't winnowed down enough,

but basically we'relooking at about three,

maybe four tickets out of Iowa.

You generally don't seeanybody that places fifth

or lower do well moving forward.

- You're saying that Iowa doesthe heavy lifting in essence.

I wanna ask you somethingabout your predictions

for this political year.

You're predicting that Pete Buttigieg

will win the Iowa Caucus in a close race,

that we'll also see Amy Klobucharbreak into the top four.

Tell us what your thinking is on that.

- Well, I think Buttigieg has one

of the strongest organizations in Iowa.

He has over a hundred staff in Iowa,

at least earlier in the cycle he did.

I'm sure he's moving some of those out

to New Hampshire and Nevadaand other places as well.

He's attracted a lot of attention.

He's had several eventswith over a thousand people

in places like Indianola andDecorah, not major cities.

And then with polling,you've seen him at the top,

even though right now we'vegot a close three-way race.

The last poll actuallyCBS/YouGov had the Iowa Caucus

at a three-way tie, 23% between Buttigieg,

Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

I think it's still, I wouldsay as far as organization,

I think it tips towardsButtigieg at this point.

I wouldn't be surprised if Biden snuck in.

I think Sanders, I believeSanders has a cap in Iowa.

I haven't seen him raise much further

beyond the 23% he's polling out.

Again, I wouldn't be surprisedto see Amy Klobuchar.

She's got an all-in strategyin Iowa, Iowa or bust.

If she doesn't at least hitthe top four, she's done.

With her rise, and Ithink Elizabeth Warren

declining a little bit,I wouldn't be surprised

to see her trade placeswith Elizabeth Warren

and come out of Iowa infourth place at least.

- All right, a lot to watchin the Democratic field.

And we've just got a couple seconds here,

but just briefly, youthink that Iowa will vote

to re-elect the president.

Why is he so popular in Iowa in your view?

- Well, I think Iowans seethat he has kept his promises,

and that's big, I thinkthe economy's doing well.

We see a low unemployment rate as well.

And you rarely see Iowa notback an incumbent president

when the economy's doing well,so I'd be very surprised.

And Iowa's also I think trending red too.

We're still considered a swing state,

but the last few elections they've tilted

towards Republicans, so I would be shocked

if we suddenly had a flip.

- All right, Shane Vander Hartwith Caffeinated Thoughts.

Thanks so much for your time.